Ukraine Mobilisation Dilemma 

       

Before the full-scale war began in 2022, Ukraine had a population of around 41 million people. But even before the war, the country was facing a serious demographic crisis low birth rate, an ageing population, and large numbers of people migrating abroad for work. Now, with millions displaced and thousands of men killed or injured in the war, Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts are hitting a wall. There simply aren’t enough people and many of those who remain are either too young, too old, or unwilling to fight. In today’s vlog, we’ll break down this growing crisis.

To defend itself against a much larger and better-equipped Russian army, Ukraine needs a constant supply of soldiers. But with the population shrinking and war fatigue setting in, mobilisation has become one of the country’s toughest challenges. The government has introduced stricter draft laws, lowered the age for conscription, and increased penalties for draft evasion yet resistance among the public is growing. Many families are afraid, some young men are hiding or fleeing the country, and trust in recruitment offices is weakening due to corruption and unfair practices.

Shortage of Soldiers on Front Line

As the war goes on, Ukraine is losing many of its soldiers to injury, death, and exhaustion. With each passing month, the pressure on the front lines increases but the number of available fighters keeps shrinking. A clear example was seen in the Battle of Avdiivka, where Ukrainian forces had to retreat after months of intense fighting, mainly due to severe manpower shortages. Soldiers were stretched thin, often holding positions for days without rest or reinforcements. The lack of fresh troops not only cost Ukraine a strategic position but also raised serious questions about how long this level of defence can be sustained."

One of the biggest challenges for Ukraine is the population gap between itself and Russia. Before the war, Ukraine had around 41 million people and that number has dropped significantly due to displacement and migration. In contrast, Russia has a population of over 146 million, giving it a much deeper pool of manpower. This demographic advantage allows Russia to absorb high casualty rates and still continue largescale offensives, while Ukraine struggles to replace its losses. The imbalance puts enormous pressure on Ukraine’s mobilisation system, which is now being pushed beyond its limits.

Why Ukraine Can't Mobilise It's All Male Population?

While Ukraine is in urgent need of soldiers, mobilizing the entire population is simply not an option. The country still needs people to keep essential services running doctors, nurses, teachers, drivers, farmers, and energy workers are all critical to daily life and national stability. If every able-bodied person were sent to the front, sectors like healthcare, transportation, and food supply would collapse, leading to chaos at home. Ukraine also has to think about its future wiping out an entire generation through over-mobilisation could make post-war recovery almost impossible. Balancing military needs with social and economic survival is one of Ukraine’s toughest challenges.

This is why Ukraine applies selective mobilisation prioritising those who are physically fit and within certain age brackets, while exempting people in critical civilian roles. Industries like logistics, energy, public transportation, and healthcare cannot function without skilled personnel. If these sectors are weakened, it would disrupt supply chains, damage internal stability, and risk a collapse of essential services. Additionally, mobilising the entire working-age population would leave the country with serious labour shortages, making post-war reconstruction and long-term economic recovery much more difficult.

Forced Mobilisation in Ukraine

As Ukraine’s war with Russia continues, the country’s military has increasingly turned to forced mobilisation to meet its recruitment targets. Reports from late 2024 and 2025 show that military enlistment offices, in coordination with local police, are actively detaining draft-eligible men in public places like bus stations, markets, and even concerts. These conscription patrols have been seen forcing men into vans and transporting them to recruitment centres without prior notice. In many cases, no legal documents or court orders are presented. Allegations have also surfaced about the conscription of men with medical conditions and disabilities, and there have even been a few deaths during or shortly after detention. Human rights groups and civil society organisations have raised concerns over these tactics, calling them unlawful and abusive. As a result of this harsh approach, a growing number of Ukrainian men are attempting to leave the country illegally. Despite strict border controls and bans on military age men leaving the country, thousands are using fake documents or crossing borders through forests and rivers. The scale of illegal emigration is rising, especially among younger men unwilling to serve or distrustful of the current system. This exodus not only weakens Ukraine’s mobilisation base but also signals a deepening crisis in public trust. The government faces a difficult balancing act between national defence and preserving basic civil liberties. If forced mobilisation continues at this scale, it may further destabilise internal society and drive more people to flee the country. Long-term, this could severely impact both the war effort and Ukraine’s post war recovery.

An Uncertain Future

As the war stretches into its third year, Ukraine faces an increasingly uncertain path ahead. Russia has shown no serious willingness to negotiate a ceasefire and continues launching coordinated offensives on multiple fronts from the Donbas to the Kharkiv region. This sustained pressure demands constant Ukrainian resistance, but the country’s military is already stretched to the limit. Exhaustion is taking a visible toll on Ukrainian forces, with soldiers serving extended rotations under harsh conditions and limited reinforcements. As a result, reports of desertion and refusal to return to the front lines are growing. Morale is low in some units, and many troops are suffering from burnout or physical injuries without proper recovery time. At the same time, forced mobilisation tactics are fueling public resentment and leading to increased illegal migration. The shrinking population and over-reliance on emergency conscription are weakening both the military and the civilian backbone of the country. With Russia maintaining the advantage in manpower and industrial resources, and with Ukraine facing internal strain, the road ahead is filled with challenges. Unless solutions are found to stabilise recruitment, maintain morale, and strengthen society without overburdening it, Ukraine risks entering a phase where sustaining both the war effort and national structure becomes increasingly difficult. The future remains uncertain and fragile.

                                                                                                     About the Author 

Mohd Saif is a writer with a deep passion for geopolitics, focusing on the dynamics that shape international relations and global events.